flowchart LR A[Endpoint] --> B(Ecological) A --> C(Human)
with human and ecological endpoints
2024-09-02
Arnobius’ Risk analysis table was done to support the decision to accept Christianity or not.
Decision | GOD exist | GOD does not exist |
---|---|---|
Accept Christianity | Risk low | Risk low |
Remain a Pagan | Risk high | Risk low |
Pascals risk analysis involving the existence of God.
Decision | GOD exist | GOD does not exist |
---|---|---|
Believe | \(+\infty\) | -1 |
Don’t believe | \(-\infty\) | 1 |
Decision problems are difficult when there is no dominating option. This is where risk analysis is needed.
Let us consider the decision problem if the parents are to make an amniocentesis (fostervattenprov) with the purpose to discover abnormal fetal conditions. A result from this test, might be used to justify an early abortion.
Decision | Foetus is not normal | Foetus is normal |
---|---|---|
Make an amniocentesis | Risk medium | Risk medium |
Do nothing | Risk high | Risk low |
In this problem,
the decision to make an amniocentesis depends on how the decision maker relates low, medium and high to each other.
Careful assessment of the risks using methods which weight available evidence are in this case required to make a decision.
In addition, parents experience troubles in understanding the accuracy of the test, how to interpret test outcomes, and find it difficult to make a decision when they get a positive test result.
This problem also have an ethical dimension:
Is it ethical to do abortion?
Is it ethical to put the foetus into danger by making a test, that itself can result in damage to the foetus?
The distinction into normal and not normal reflects values not shared by all.
ISO 31000:2018 definition: Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives
Uncertainty is considered the state, even partial, of deficiency of information related to, understanding or knowledge of, an event, its consequences or likelihood.
Working principles for risk analysis FAO/WHO Codex alimentarius
A risk analysis should be:
Three main components
risk assessment
risk management
risk communication
Effective communication and consultation with all interested parties should be ensured throughout the risk analysis.
There should be a functional separation of risk assessment and risk management, in order to ensure the scientific integrity of the risk assessment, to avoid confusion over the functions to be performed by risk assessors and risk managers and to reduce any conflict of interest.
However, it is recognized that risk analysis is an iterative process, and interaction between risk managers and risk assessors is essential for practical application.
US EPA as relevant example
Risk is the chance of harmful effects to human health or to ecological systems…
flowchart LR A[Endpoint] --> B(Ecological) A --> C(Human)
…resulting from exposure to an environmental stressor.
Planning
Problem formulation
Analysis
Risk characterisation
Involved in planning:
decision makers or risk managers
risk assessors and scientific experts
interested parties or stakeholders
The objective of the problem formulation phase is to:
refine the objectives for the risk assessment
determine which ecological entities are at risk
determine which characteristics are important to protect
An ecological entity can be defined at one or more levels:
A species
A functional group of species
A community
An ecosystem
A specific valued habitat
Ecological relevant & Susceptible to stressors & Relevant to management goals
Evaluate ecological responses to stressors under exposure conditions of interest
Exposure profile
Stressor-response profile or ecological effects analysis
Assessors should
Objective: Prevent loss of biological diversity
Endpoint: Viability of sensitive species
Stressors
Direction of cause and effect
Complexity and system boundaries
Retro- or prospective, or both
Environmental/Ecological Risk Assessment
Chemical stressor(s) -> Ecological systems Manage stressors
Red List Assessment Multiple stressors -> Species Conservation of threatened species, Reduce loss of biodiversity
Pest Risk Assessment Spread of invasive species or pests affecting ecological systems
Human Health Risk Assessment Chemical stressor(s) -> human health
Pest Risk Assessment Spread of pests or diseases -> human health
What to assess?
How to characterise risk?
How to assess it?
How people (the public, experts, risk managers) perceive risk
It might not be the same as “objective” risk estimates
What is right or wrong
Agreed guidelines and frameworks
Principles to draw scientific conclusions given available data, evidence and expert knowledge considering limitations in this knowledge
Scientific assessment - assessment done by organisation providing scientific advice to risk managers and policy makers
An expert on risk assessment must be familiar with reading guidelines or standards of how to perform assessment
These may differ between different organisations